Uncertainty and Selective Prediction

Uncertainty and Selective Prediction

Models often produce outputs with high confidence, even when wrong. Uncertainty estimation attaches a confidence signal to each prediction, while selective prediction turns that signal into action: depending on the acceptable risk, the model abstains instead of guessing, and the case can be handed to a human.

We approach this problem from complementary angles. Bayesian methods handle uncertainty in a principled way by considering many plausible models instead of just one. We aim to apply these principle to modern Vision-Language Models and agents (Tobias). Learned selectors instead train a separate model to judge whether an answer can be trusted, for multimodal models by checking whether it is actually supported by the visual evidence it relied on (Hector). Beyond single predictions, we study how models can use uncertainty to decide what to do next: answer, ask, or look again.

Curious about how models can know what they don’t know? We have thesis and project topics available – feel free to get in touch, preferably both by using our contact form and a quick ping by mail.

Experts

  Name Working area(s) Contact
Tobias Wieczorek M.Sc.Uncertainty, Selective Prediction, Probabilistic Methods
S4/23 211
Hector Garcia Rodriguez M.Sc.Adaptability, Modularity
S4/23 207
Prof. Dr. Marcus RohrbachMultimodal Reliable AI
S4/23 204